For those who are upbeat about the chances of the
incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan winning
re-election if he decides to run, I have bad news
for them. The President may not only lose in 2015,
he could lose by a landslide even with the
incumbency factor perceived to be in his favour.
Let’s even consider a massive defeat of an
incumbent impossibility; he could still be edged out
by a narrow margin. Indeed all evidence point to
the first shocking defeat of an incumbent in a
presidential election in the country. For the first
time ever, it seems the incumbency effect may not
matter. While I acknowledge the usual arguments
about the incumbent advantage; 2015 may yet
prove to be an exception.
Why do I think so? If the supporters of the
President can just sit back and remove the scale of
sycophancy from their eyes and honestly assess the
situation in the country, they will see that in a free
and fair election, the President does not stand a
chance. I think they may be in for a rude shock.
Those who fancy an easy win for Jonathan may
have failed to appreciate the enormity of the
challenges stacked against his re-election. But
supporters of the administration seem to have been
living in denial all this while. For them the
President’s victory is a foregone conclusion. Not
quite. Their optimism seems buoyed by the gale of
endorsements by
some phony groups and intimidated Peoples
Democratic Party governors who seem not to have
any choice anyway. Supporters of the
administration have also trumpeted what they
considered to be some achievements of the
President. But it appears the so-called
achievements are known only to them alone. As
for Nigerians, it has been a case of the more you
look, the less you see when it comes to assessing
this administration. In the ultimate decider will be
Nigerian voters.
Despite the huge arsenal of funds and state
machinery at the disposal of the Jonathan
presidency, politics and life often have other plans.
This is what recent elections have taught us. The
reality is, incumbents can be defeated. It may
happen in 2015 – in a few months from now,
President Jonathan will find out whether he will be
keeping his job. For most voters, their choice will
ultimately come down to how they expect either a
new president or Jonathan to run the affairs of our
country in the next four years. Unfortunately for
Jonathan, he does not seem to have much of a
presidential record, and a review of it leaves little
doubt that Nigerians may want to fire him.
Let me make it clear for people reading this,
especially supporters of this administration, the
laziest thing will be to dismiss my thoughts as the
ranting of a hater of the President or an opposition
hatchet job. Far from it, I am completely apolitical.
One does not need a crystal ball to see the realities
of why President Jonathan should be preparing his
handover note. Or shouldn’t he? Here are my
reasons. The first is in the changing demographics.
Increasingly as we progress in our democratic
experience, it is becoming clear that it is the voters
that will ultimately determine the fate of
candidates.
In the past, defeating incumbents was unthinkable.
Incumbents held what proverbialy could be called
the yam and the knife – but not anymore. We
have the situation where sitting Presidents deploy
state machinery to induce and coerce all electoral
institutions. In recent governorship elections
incumbents have been beaten while some held on
to their post by a thin margin. It is no longer easy
to steal the people’s mandate. Now if elections are
not won by ballot, one can be sure the courts will
overturn any stolen mandate. The trend will surely
continue in 2015. If the situation persists, President
Jonathan may be Nigeria’s first one-term
President. Not even the rallies being held across
the country in support of the President may help
the re-election. In 2015, the President will be
assessed by his performance in the last five years.
A look at history has shown that if President
Jonathan loses, he will not be the first incumbent
to do so. There have been nearly a dozen one term
Presidents who ran for second terms but were
denied by voters, in the United States, for example,
there have been three one-term presidents since
World War II. The most recent one-term president
who lost his re-election bid was George H.W. Bush,
a Republican who lost to Democrat Bill Clinton in
1992. Republican George H.W. Bush was the 41st
President of the United States, serving from 1989 to
1993.
He lost a campaign for re-election in 1992 to
Democrat, Bill Clinton. Bush’s official White House
biography describes his re-election loss this way:
“Despite unprecedented popularity from this
military and diplomatic triumph, Bush was unable
to withstand discontent at home from a faltering
economy and continued high deficit spending.’’
Though some of the one-term US presidents lost
due to the prevailing economic, political and social
factors of their time; those factors will pale into
insignificance when juxtaposed with the failures of
the Jonathan presidency. If any of the US
presidents had been Jonathan, they would not have
even made the mid-term election as they would
have been impeached. Unfortunately, we have
legislative arms that are largely part of the rot.
But in spite of ongoing propaganda, Nigerians seem
to have become wiser—more discerning. They may
express their displeasure with this administration
in 2015. I have written in this column that the
next election may yet be a protest vote by a people
tired of this administration’s arrogance, contempt
and disdain for their welfare as a people. What
will be the greatest obstacle in the path of
Jonathan’s re-election is his attitude to corruption.
Needless to say that Nigerians have become
embarrassed by how corruption scandals at home
and abroad have taken a toll on their country’s
reputation.
What is worse is Jonathan’s denial of corruption as
the cause of our underdevelopment. In several
public statements, the President had declared,
much to the bewilderment of Nigerians, that
corruption is not Nigeria’s problem. The President
must know that Nigerians are seriously angry
about his ‘body language’ to corruption when
allegations of corruption continue to taint his
government. This President has too much baggage
going into an election year. They will certainly
hurt his re-election chances.
For example, Nigerians are scandalised by the
President’s refusal to probe the ongoing cash-for-
arm scandals rocking his administration. That he
has continued to maintain silence even as these
allegations continue to taint the integrity of his
administration is unnerving to Nigerians.
Meanwhile, under this administration, all the
agencies meant to fight corruption have also gone
comatose. Perhaps it is not a coincidence that this
is happening under his Presidency. The lack of
leadership and the damage inflicted on Nigerians
living in the North-East by the administration’s
delay to confront growing insecurity has had its
attendant consequences. The President is going into
the election as a largely unpopular candidate. Can
Nigerians afford four more years of Jonathan?
Something tells me that we may have seen the last
of the Jonathan’s presidency. I will be surprised if
he is re-elected.
This is a short description in the author block about the author. You edit it by entering text in the "Biographical Info" field in the user admin panel.
0 comments:
Post a Comment